NBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 122 – 123
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets

Heat: 38-32 (54.3%) | Market Rating: +1.11

Rockets: 42-27 (60.9%) | Market Rating: +2.28 | Home Court: +2.5 pts

Line: -3.0

Total: 228.5

Open: -2

Open: 229.5

Team totals: Heat 113.5 · Rockets 115.5

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Injury Report as of Mar 21, 11:45 PM ET MIA4 Out HOU2 Out

Miami Heat

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Andrew Wiggins	30.5	Out	Left Big Toe; Sesamoiditis Updated Mar 6 or earlier
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	28.4	Out	Left Hip;Tightness Updated Mar 19
Norman Powell	29.4	Out	Left Calf;Tightness Updated Mar 21
Terry Rozier	25.9 ’24	Out	Not With Team Updated Mar 6 or earlier
Kel'el Ware	22.4	Available	Right Shoulder;Strain Updated Mar 12
Nikola Jovic	17.2	Available	Low Back;Injury Management Updated Mar 17
Pelle Larsson	26.4	Available	Right Foot;Contusion Updated Mar 17
Simone Fontecchio	16.6	Available	Back;Spasms Updated Mar 21

Houston Rockets

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Fred VanVleet	35.2 ’24	Out	Right Knee;ACL Repair Updated Mar 6 or earlier
Steven Adams	22.8	Out	Left Ankle;Surgery Updated Mar 6 or earlier
Alperen Sengun	33.7	Available	Back;Tightness Updated Mar 21
Jae'Sean Tate	8.5	Available	Right Knee;Sprain Updated Mar 21

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’24 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest advantage

Rockets

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Double digit, in-season revenge

In-season revenge

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Heat Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/25/26 2025	Heat	-	@	Cavaliers	-	+2.5	243.0	-	-
03/23/26 2025	Heat	-	vs.	Spurs	-	+3.5	244.5	-	-
03/21/26 2025	Heat	-	@	Rockets	-	+3.0	228.5	-	-
03/19/26	Heat	126	vs.	Lakers	134	-3.5	242.5	+8	O 260 +17.5
2025	ORtg: 127.0 DRtg: 135.1 Pace: 99.2			ORtg: 135.1 DRtg: 127.0 Pace: 99.2
03/17/26	Heat	106	@	Hornets	136	+5.0	237.0	+30	O 242 +5.0
2025	ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 129.7 Pace: 104.8			ORtg: 129.7 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 104.8
03/14/26	Heat	117	vs.	Magic	121	-4.5	236.5	+4	O 238 +1.5
2025	ORtg: 114.3 DRtg: 118.2 Pace: 102.3			ORtg: 118.2 DRtg: 114.3 Pace: 102.3
03/12/26	Heat	112	vs.	Bucks	105	-5.5	233.5	-7	U 217 -16.5
2025	ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 106.6 Pace: 98.5			ORtg: 106.6 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 98.5
03/10/26	Heat	150	vs.	Wizards	129	-15.5	236.5	-21	O 279 +42.5
2025	ORtg: 129.0 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 116.3			ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 129.0 Pace: 116.3
03/08/26	Heat	121	vs.	Pistons	110	+1.5	230.5	-11	O 231 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 125.7 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 96.3			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 125.7 Pace: 96.3
03/06/26	Heat	128	@	Hornets	120	+7.5	230.5	-8	O 248 +17.5
2025	ORtg: 127.8 DRtg: 119.8 Pace: 100.1			ORtg: 119.8 DRtg: 127.8 Pace: 100.1
03/05/26	Heat	126	vs.	Nets	110	-12.5	226.5	-16	O 236 +9.5
2025	ORtg: 126.9 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 99.3			ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 126.9 Pace: 99.3
03/03/26	Heat	124	vs.	Nets	98	-12.5	226.5	-26	U 222 -4.5
2025	ORtg: 124.8 DRtg: 98.6 Pace: 99.3			ORtg: 98.6 DRtg: 124.8 Pace: 99.3
02/28/26	Heat	115	vs.	Rockets	105	+2.5	226.5	-10	U 220 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 119.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 96.3			ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 119.4 Pace: 96.3

Away Games Avg (2 games)		117.0	-	-	128.0	+6.3	233.8	+11.0 -4.8	O 245.0 +11.3
	ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 124.8 Pace: 102.5			ORtg: 124.8 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 102.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		122.5	-	-	116.8	-3.8	232.7	-5.7 +2.0	O 239.3 +6.7
	ORtg: 121.0 DRtg: 115.3 Pace: 101.3			ORtg: 115.3 DRtg: 121.0 Pace: 101.3

Rockets Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/25/26 2025	Rockets	-	@	Timberwolves	-	-2.0	222.0	-	-
03/23/26 2025	Rockets	-	@	Bulls	-	-9.0	233.5	-	-
03/21/26 2025	Rockets	-	vs.	Heat	-	-3.0	228.5	-	-
03/20/26	Rockets	117	vs.	Hawks	95	-3.0	228.0	-22	U 212 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 118.2 DRtg: 96.0 Pace: 99.0			ORtg: 96.0 DRtg: 118.2 Pace: 99.0
03/18/26	Rockets	116	vs.	Lakers	124	-1.5	223.5	+8	O 240 +16.5
2025	ORtg: 122.7 DRtg: 131.2 Pace: 94.5			ORtg: 131.2 DRtg: 122.7 Pace: 94.5
03/16/26	Rockets	92	vs.	Lakers	100	+1.5	223.5	+8	U 192 -31.5
2025	ORtg: 103.8 DRtg: 112.8 Pace: 88.6			ORtg: 112.8 DRtg: 103.8 Pace: 88.6
03/13/26	Rockets	107	vs.	Pelicans	105	-5.5	230.5	-2	U 212 -18.5
2025	ORtg: 116.0 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 92.2			ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 116.0 Pace: 92.2
03/11/26	Rockets	93	@	Nuggets	129	+6.5	232.5	+36	U 222 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 132.8 Pace: 97.1			ORtg: 132.8 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 97.1
03/10/26	Rockets	113	vs.	Raptors	99	-4.5	220.5	-14	U 212 -8.5
2025	ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 93.6			ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 93.6
03/08/26	Rockets	120	@	Spurs	145	+5.5	223.5	+25	O 265 +41.5
2025	ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 145.4 Pace: 99.7			ORtg: 145.4 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 99.7
03/06/26	Rockets	106	vs.	Trail Blazers	99	-6.5	221.5	-7	U 205 -16.5
2025	ORtg: 108.6 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 97.6			ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 108.6 Pace: 97.6
03/05/26	Rockets	113	vs.	Warriors	115 OT	-8.5	213.5	+2	O 228 +14.5
2025	ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 89.9			ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 89.9
03/02/26	Rockets	123	@	Wizards	118	-14.5	224.5	-5	O 241 +16.5
2025	ORtg: 124.1 DRtg: 119.1 Pace: 99.1			ORtg: 119.1 DRtg: 124.1 Pace: 99.1

Home Games Avg (7 games)		109.1	-	-	105.3	-4.0	223.0	-3.9 -0.1	U 214.4 -8.6
	ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 93.6			ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 93.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		110.0	-	-	112.9	-3.1	224.2	+2.9 -6.0	U 222.9 -1.3
	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 117.4 Pace: 95.1			ORtg: 117.4 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 95.1

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Heat are 73.3% (11-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Heat are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

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Rockets (Home)

The Rockets are 42.9% (30-40) against the spread

The Rockets are 37.1% (13-22) against the spread at home

The Rockets are 41% (25-36) against the spread as a fav

The Rockets are 39.4% (13-20) against the spread as a home fav

The Rockets are 57.1% (40-30) to the under

The Rockets are 65.7% (23-12) to the under at home

The Rockets are 55.7% (34-27) to the under as a fav

The Rockets are 63.6% (21-12) to the under as a home fav

The Rockets are 41.2% (7-10) (L30 days) against the spread

The Rockets are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Rockets are 46.2% (6-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Rockets are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Rockets are 52.9% (9-8) (L30 days) to the under

The Rockets are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Rockets are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Rockets are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Heat (Away)

The Heat are 60% (42-28-1) against the spread

The Heat are 61.8% (21-13-1) against the spread away

The Heat are 63.6% (21-12-1) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 58.3% (14-10-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 54.9% (39-32) to the over

The Heat are 54.3% (19-16) to the over away

The Heat are 61.8% (21-13) to the over as a dog

The Heat are 60% (15-10) to the over as an away dog

The Heat are 66.7% (10-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Heat are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Heat are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Heat are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Heat are 73.3% (11-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Heat are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/28/26	Rockets	105	@	Heat	115	-2.5	226.5	+10	U 220 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 119.4 Pace: 96.3			ORtg: 119.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 96.3
03/21/25	Rockets	102	@	Heat	98	-4.5	212.0	-4	U 200 -12.0
2024	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 106.3 Pace: 92.2			ORtg: 106.3 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 92.2
12/29/24	Rockets	100	vs.	Heat	104	-8.5	215.0	+4	U 204 -11.0
2024	ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 93.1			ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 93.1

Rockets as Home (1 games)		100.0	-	-	104.0	-8.5	215.0	+4.0 -12.5	U 204.0 -11.0
	ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 93.1			ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 93.1

All Games Avg (3 games)		102.3	-	-	105.7	-5.2	217.8	+3.3 -8.5	U 208.0 -9.8
	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 93.9			ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 93.9

NBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 122 – 123 Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nba", away_team: "Miami Heat", home_team: "Houston Rockets", game_date: null };

Odds Full NBA odds board

Injury Report as of Mar 21, 11:45 PM ET MIA4 Out HOU2 Out

Notes

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Rockets

Situational Factor(s)

Filters

Schedules

Heat Schedule Follow global filters

Rockets Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Rockets (Home)

Heat (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 122 – 123
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets