NBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 113 – 109
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

Mavericks: 1-2 (33.3%) | Market Rating: -4.80

Heat: 0-3 (0.0%) | Market Rating: +1.07 | Home Court: +1.6 pts

Line: -7.5

Total: 240.5

Open: -8

Open: 235.5

Team totals: Mavericks 116.5 · Heat 123.5 (open 115.5 / 124.5)

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Injury Report as of Oct 26, 11:45 PM ET DAL4 Out MIANo key injuries

Dallas Mavericks

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Caleb Martin	18.4	Out	Right Thumb Sprain Updated Oct 26
Dereck Lively II	16.5 ’25	Out	Right Foot Surgery Updated Oct 21
Naji Marshall	24.8	Out	Illness Updated Oct 25
Santi Aldama	15.6	Out	Right Knee Surgery Updated Oct 21
Cooper Flagg	34.1	Available	Left Shoulder Sprain Updated Oct 26

Not in rotation / low minutes: Tarik Biberovic

Miami Heat

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Pelle Larsson	29.4	Available	Left Finger Sprain Updated Oct 24

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Mavericks

Situational Factor(s)

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mavericks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/30/26 2026	Mavericks	-	vs.	Rockets	-	+5.5	223.5	-	-
10/28/26 2026	Mavericks	-	vs.	Thunder	-	+5.0	228.5	-	-
10/26/26 2026	Mavericks	-	@	Heat	-	+7.5	240.5	-	-
10/24/26	Mavericks	106	vs.	Spurs	122	+15.0	229.5	+16	U 228 -1.5
2026	ORtg: 105.5 DRtg: 121.4 Pace: 100.5			ORtg: 121.4 DRtg: 105.5 Pace: 100.5
10/23/26	Mavericks	121	@	Pacers	105	+7.5	241.5	-16	U 226 -15.5
2026	ORtg: 119.7 DRtg: 103.8 Pace: 101.1			ORtg: 103.8 DRtg: 119.7 Pace: 101.1
10/21/26	Mavericks	110	@	Rockets	128	+10.0	230.0	+18	O 238 +8.0
2026	ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 130.8 Pace: 97.9			ORtg: 130.8 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 97.9
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
04/12/26	Mavericks	149	vs.	Bulls	128	-5.5	249.5	-21	O 277 +27.5
2025	ORtg: 133.5 DRtg: 114.7 Pace: 111.6			ORtg: 114.7 DRtg: 133.5 Pace: 111.6
04/10/26	Mavericks	120	@	Spurs	139	+18.5	236.5	+19	O 259 +22.5
2025	ORtg: 125.0 DRtg: 144.8 Pace: 96.0			ORtg: 144.8 DRtg: 125.0 Pace: 96.0
04/08/26	Mavericks	107	@	Suns	112	+12.5	234.5	+5	U 219 -15.5
2025	ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 119.8 Pace: 93.5			ORtg: 119.8 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 93.5
04/07/26	Mavericks	103	@	Clippers	116	+11.5	235.5	+13	U 219 -16.5
2025	ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 102.9			ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 102.9
04/05/26	Mavericks	134	vs.	Lakers	128	+1.5	234.5	-6	O 262 +27.5
2025	ORtg: 130.6 DRtg: 124.8 Pace: 102.6			ORtg: 124.8 DRtg: 130.6 Pace: 102.6
04/03/26	Mavericks	127	vs.	Magic	138	+6.5	239.5	+11	O 265 +25.5
2025	ORtg: 118.2 DRtg: 128.4 Pace: 107.5			ORtg: 128.4 DRtg: 118.2 Pace: 107.5
03/31/26	Mavericks	99	@	Bucks	123	-2.5	231.5	+24	U 222 -9.5
2025	ORtg: 94.0 DRtg: 116.7 Pace: 105.4			ORtg: 116.7 DRtg: 94.0 Pace: 105.4

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		115.5	-	-	116.5	+8.8	235.8	+1.0 +7.8	U 232.0 -3.8
	ORtg: 116.0 DRtg: 117.3 Pace: 99.5			ORtg: 117.3 DRtg: 116.0 Pace: 99.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		112.3	-	-	118.3	+10.8	233.7	+6.0 +4.8	U 230.7 -3.0
	ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 118.7 Pace: 99.8			ORtg: 118.7 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 99.8

Heat Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/30/26 2026	Heat	-	vs.	Pacers	-	-8.5	237.0	-	-
10/28/26 2026	Heat	-	@	Hawks	-	+2.5	243.0	-	-
10/26/26 2026	Heat	-	vs.	Mavericks	-	-7.5	240.5	-	-
10/24/26	Heat	110	@	Hornets	115	-4.5	228.0	+5	U 225 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 99.9			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 99.9
10/23/26	Heat	111	vs.	Pistons	128	+2.0	235.0	+17	O 239 +4.0
2026	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 123.0 Pace: 104.0			ORtg: 123.0 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 104.0
10/21/26	Heat	106	vs.	Timberwolves	131	-1.5	240.5	+25	U 237 -3.5
2026	ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 125.8 Pace: 104.1			ORtg: 125.8 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 104.1
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
04/14/26	Heat	126	@	Hornets	127 OT	+6.0	228.5	+1	O 253 +24.5
2025	ORtg: 124.5 DRtg: 125.5 Pace: 91.7			ORtg: 125.5 DRtg: 124.5 Pace: 91.7
04/12/26	Heat	143	vs.	Hawks	117	-10.5	240.5	-26	O 260 +19.5
2025	ORtg: 140.7 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 101.6			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 140.7 Pace: 101.6
04/10/26	Heat	140	@	Wizards	117	-16.0	244.0	-23	O 257 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 138.3 DRtg: 115.6 Pace: 101.2			ORtg: 115.6 DRtg: 138.3 Pace: 101.2
04/09/26	Heat	114	@	Raptors	128	+4.5	236.5	+14	O 242 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 122.6 DRtg: 137.7 Pace: 93.0			ORtg: 137.7 DRtg: 122.6 Pace: 93.0
04/07/26	Heat	95	@	Raptors	121	+2.5	240.5	+26	U 216 -24.5
2025	ORtg: 93.8 DRtg: 119.5 Pace: 101.2			ORtg: 119.5 DRtg: 93.8 Pace: 101.2
04/04/26	Heat	152	vs.	Wizards	136	-18.5	246.0	-16	O 288 +42.0
2025	ORtg: 140.9 DRtg: 126.1 Pace: 107.9			ORtg: 126.1 DRtg: 140.9 Pace: 107.9
04/01/26	Heat	129	vs.	Celtics	147	+4.5	230.0	+18	O 276 +46.0
2025	ORtg: 130.5 DRtg: 148.7 Pace: 98.9			ORtg: 148.7 DRtg: 130.5 Pace: 98.9

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		108.5	-	-	129.5	+0.3	237.8	+21.0 -20.8	O 238.0 +0.3
	ORtg: 104.2 DRtg: 124.4 Pace: 104.1			ORtg: 124.4 DRtg: 104.2 Pace: 104.1

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		109.0	-	-	124.7	-1.3	234.5	+15.7 -17.0	U 233.7 -0.8
	ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 102.7			ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 102.7

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Records

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Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

The Heat are 0% (0-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Heat are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Mavericks are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Mavericks are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

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Heat (Home)

The Heat are 54.7% (47-39-1) against the spread

The Heat are 52.3% (23-21) against the spread at home

The Heat are 52.3% (23-21) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 48.4% (15-16) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 56.3% (49-38) to the over

The Heat are 56.8% (25-19) to the over at home

The Heat are 50% (22-22) to the over as a fav

The Heat are 51.6% (16-15) to the over as a home fav

The Heat are 0% (0-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Heat are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Heat are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Heat are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Heat are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Heat are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Mavericks (Away)

The Mavericks are 44.7% (38-47-1) against the spread

The Mavericks are 42.9% (18-24-1) against the spread away

The Mavericks are 46.8% (29-33-1) against the spread as a dog

The Mavericks are 43.8% (14-18-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Mavericks are 54.7% (47-39) to the under

The Mavericks are 62.8% (27-16) to the under away

The Mavericks are 52.4% (33-30) to the under as a dog

The Mavericks are 60.6% (20-13) to the under as an away dog

The Mavericks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mavericks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mavericks are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mavericks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Mavericks are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Mavericks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mavericks are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Mavericks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/03/25	Heat	108	@	Mavericks	118	-4.5	238.5	+10	U 226 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 119.8 Pace: 98.5			ORtg: 119.8 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 98.5
11/24/25	Heat	106	vs.	Mavericks	102	-7.5	240.5	-4	U 208 -32.5
2025	ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 101.6			ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 101.6

Heat as Home (1 games)		106.0	-	-	102.0	-7.5	240.5	-4.0 -3.5	U 208.0 -32.5
	ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 101.6			ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 101.6

All Games Avg (2 games)		107.0	-	-	110.0	-6.0	239.5	+3.0 -9.0	U 217.0 -22.5
	ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 100.1			ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 100.1

NBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 113 – 109 Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nba", away_team: "Dallas Mavericks", home_team: "Miami Heat", game_date: null };

Odds Full NBA odds board

Injury Report as of Oct 26, 11:45 PM ET DAL4 Out MIANo key injuries

Notes

Mavericks

Situational Factor(s)

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Filters

Schedules

Mavericks Schedule Follow global filters

Heat Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Heat (Home)

Mavericks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 113 – 109
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat